Freakonomics

Freakonomics is a book about statistics, and the most interesting deduction it made that stayed in my mind was that lower crime rates were due to the enactment of the right to abort some time back, and the author makes use of statistics to prove that point. He links seemingly non-related stuff to prove that they actually might have causal effects on each other. So i found that case interesting, but it's a pity the rest of the book was such a snore. Freakonomiczzz.

So if i extrapolate that concept, here goes, let's say you're a guy, you're in a public toilet and there's a queue for the urinals. Whether there's a queue or not would seem to have no effect on the amount of time each guy takes. But if you actually stood there and recorded down the time taken, it would probably be faster when there's a queue. Cos who would relish the feeling of someone breathing down their necks while their private parts are public parts? Perhaps with the exception of gays, and even then, very perverted gays. So the emphasis would be to be done as quickly as possible without wetting the pants.

I'm not really sure what relevance the previous paragraph had, but if you've read it, thanks for your patience. Crap aside, we've come to the gist of this post, which is that i've thought of a new economic indicator. There's always doubt as to when the economy is really recovering and when we should invest in stocks, and this is where my indicator is a reliable gauge. You simply have to count the number of people who buy Toto and 4D everyday. The greater the number of people, the worse the recession. Don't believe me? See for yourself, it's a recession now, and you don't see the crowds at singaporepools thinning. In fact, hope springs eternal, so the more desperate the people, the more Toto and 4D they buy. Probability of striking Toto when you buy one combination is 1 out of 8145060 and 1 out of 10000 for 4D for your information. You'd have to be pretty lucky to strike Toto, less so for 4D. Or you could try your luck in another way. Wait for the 10million jackpot, buy all 8145060 combinations, and hope that no one strikes too. Though going by history, that is quite impossible. Somehow, human nature has it that the more desperate the person, the more he will resort to things with low probability of success (getting away with robbing a bank, buying big sweep) Back to the economic indicator, you can plot a graph using the data that you have amassed standing outside singapore pools outlets, preferably with graphmatica, free software for schoolkids. The number of people placing bets is expected to increase with the deterioration of the economy, so when the human traffic falls, be ready to buy some stocks because a market recovery is just around the corner. But as they say, trading is a hard way to make an easy buck.