Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Win at soccer betting

This revolutionary new strategy involves spreading risk around.

For example, YJ tells me that the odds for Germany topping their world cup group started at around 1.47, means for every $10 you put in, you get $4.70 in profit if you win.

Now the odds are at 1.10, so you only profit by a dollar if you bet $10 now.

Assuming I foresaw that the odds for Germany to be group winner would drop, I would bet when the odds open at 1.47.

Seeing now that the odds at Singapore Pools are at 1.10, I would hang around a Singapore Pools outlet and offer to sell my ticket to smart punters for $12. The total sum of money the ticket earns if Germany is the group winner is $14.70, and $14.70/$12 is 1.225, thus I am still offering better odds than Singapore Pools at this time.

I would only earn $2 instead of $4.70 if i do the above, but I don't have to wait to see if Germany is group winner. $2 in hand is better than $4 in Singapore Pools. Ok so this is a bad example because Germany is going to be group winner, but you get the idea.

This strategy means that you don't have to guess if the vuvuzela sound waves will propel the Jabulani world cup ball into the net. You just have to figure out which bets are the more popular ones. Damn this is totally a lesson in quantitative finance.

1 comment:

Kristin Rand said...

Simply awesome! Do read the blog. Also go through http://trophysportsbook.com/8-famous-sports-stars-with-big-betting-losses/ to know more

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