Win at soccer betting

This revolutionary new strategy involves spreading risk around.

For example, YJ tells me that the odds for Germany topping their world cup group started at around 1.47, means for every $10 you put in, you get $4.70 in profit if you win.

Now the odds are at 1.10, so you only profit by a dollar if you bet $10 now.

Assuming I foresaw that the odds for Germany to be group winner would drop, I would bet when the odds open at 1.47.

Seeing now that the odds at Singapore Pools are at 1.10, I would hang around a Singapore Pools outlet and offer to sell my ticket to smart punters for $12. The total sum of money the ticket earns if Germany is the group winner is $14.70, and $14.70/$12 is 1.225, thus I am still offering better odds than Singapore Pools at this time.

I would only earn $2 instead of $4.70 if i do the above, but I don't have to wait to see if Germany is group winner. $2 in hand is better than $4 in Singapore Pools. Ok so this is a bad example because Germany is going to be group winner, but you get the idea.

This strategy means that you don't have to guess if the vuvuzela sound waves will propel the Jabulani world cup ball into the net. You just have to figure out which bets are the more popular ones. Damn this is totally a lesson in quantitative finance.

Experience sharing

I am an advocate of experience-sharing. That way we can all learn from one another and not to make the same stupid mistakes we all have gone through. One learns best through his own mistakes, however, and here are my reflections..

The Renovation
In one of my weekly visits to my grandma's, i found a notice pasted next to the lift on the ground floor. i glanced through it and the gist of the notice was to announce that re-screeding works (whatever that was..) were to commence on 5th june, lasting about two weeks.

and all that yada yada, sorry for the inconvenience caused, etc. BUT right at the bottom, someone scrawled "請用華語" exactly as it is here, in 繁體字.

i realised he/she made a good point, for there was no chinese version of the letter. so being a good bilingual samaritan, i took out my pilot pen and started scribbling out a brief translation.

i was about to complete the first sentence when a lady appeared behind me, looking disgusted. bet she thought i was some vandal. and the lift arrived so i stopped what i was doing and went in. she continued to stare at me.

lesson learnt: 好心沒好報

which naturally leads to 別多管閒事

The Strategy
I have a friend S who is a soccer connoisseur. Actually, we both are. This means we appreciate watching football matches and considering their outcomes. we enjoy debating over the possibilities of win, lose and draw.

after some thorough research, the draw rate was found to be around 28% (go calculate it yourself if you don't believe me). this means 3 draws out of every 10 matches. i gingerly placed a bet for 10 matches, and none of them ended up in a draw.

lesson learnt: SOCCER IS NOT MATHEMATICS

..and i'm going hungry for the next few days hahaha.