Monday, March 22, 2010
World Cup Joke
This blonde walks into a bar. They happened to be giving out free bras at the bar. The bra-giver asks the blonde, "What size are your boobies? B-cup, C-cup, D-cup? " The blonde replies "WORLD CUP!!" ooh yea.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
What are your chances of having breast cancer? (if you are a woman and have positive results from mammogram)
You are a female who has just received a positive result from a mammogram which you have undergone under the subtle influence of the many advertisements put up by the government. Yes, it is a positive result. You ask the gamemaster (also known as the doctor), what are your chances of actually having breast cancer?
Now how does the gamemaster know? He probably has a manual that details the research conducted on the accuracy of mammograms. It'll say something like this:
1. The probability that a woman has breast cancer (prevalence) is 1 percent.
2. If a woman has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive (sensitivity) is 90 percent.
3. If a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability that she nonetheless tests positive (false-positive rate) is 9 percent.
And the answer that the gamemaster should infer from the above is one of the following:
a. The probability that you have breast cancer is about 81 percent.
b. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about nine have breast cancer.
c. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about one has breast cancer.
d. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 1 percent.
What do you think is the probability of having breast cancer given a positive result from a mammogram? To extract brain juice, give it a try before reading on.
The answer is C. Your dice of life has 10 sides, and only one of them says breast cancer. Kind of. The reason is not that you are all guys, but that in interpreting the information given, we tend to make some assumptions.
The answer that most would come up with is B, because we only utilise statement no.2, that "if a woman has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive (sensitivity) is 90 percent."
In doing so, we are already assuming that you have breast cancer. What if you don't have breast cancer? Then the chances of you still having a positive result is relatively low at 9 percent (false-positive rate), but because a majority of the population does not have breast cancer (see statement 1), that 9 percent becomes a large number of people and you are likely to be one of them. To get the figure of one in ten, we do some simple calculations.
Percentage of population that has breast cancer and tests positive: 90% x 1%(of population) = 0.9%
Percentage of population that does not have breast cancer and tests positive: 9% x 99% = 8.91%
Probability that you test positive and have breast cancer: 0.9% divide by (8.91%+0.91%) = about 10%
Gamemasters should get a degree in statistics too. In case you're wondering, it came from an issue of Scientific American Mind (a magazine), and it called for greater clarity in the presentation of research results, seeing as most gamemasters chose B as well, causing unnecessary worry for patients. Now you know better.
Now how does the gamemaster know? He probably has a manual that details the research conducted on the accuracy of mammograms. It'll say something like this:
1. The probability that a woman has breast cancer (prevalence) is 1 percent.
2. If a woman has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive (sensitivity) is 90 percent.
3. If a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability that she nonetheless tests positive (false-positive rate) is 9 percent.
And the answer that the gamemaster should infer from the above is one of the following:
a. The probability that you have breast cancer is about 81 percent.
b. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about nine have breast cancer.
c. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about one has breast cancer.
d. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 1 percent.
What do you think is the probability of having breast cancer given a positive result from a mammogram? To extract brain juice, give it a try before reading on.
The answer is C. Your dice of life has 10 sides, and only one of them says breast cancer. Kind of. The reason is not that you are all guys, but that in interpreting the information given, we tend to make some assumptions.
The answer that most would come up with is B, because we only utilise statement no.2, that "if a woman has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive (sensitivity) is 90 percent."
In doing so, we are already assuming that you have breast cancer. What if you don't have breast cancer? Then the chances of you still having a positive result is relatively low at 9 percent (false-positive rate), but because a majority of the population does not have breast cancer (see statement 1), that 9 percent becomes a large number of people and you are likely to be one of them. To get the figure of one in ten, we do some simple calculations.
Percentage of population that has breast cancer and tests positive: 90% x 1%(of population) = 0.9%
Percentage of population that does not have breast cancer and tests positive: 9% x 99% = 8.91%
Probability that you test positive and have breast cancer: 0.9% divide by (8.91%+0.91%) = about 10%
Gamemasters should get a degree in statistics too. In case you're wondering, it came from an issue of Scientific American Mind (a magazine), and it called for greater clarity in the presentation of research results, seeing as most gamemasters chose B as well, causing unnecessary worry for patients. Now you know better.
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Asshole Rehab Centre
Update: Jack Neo has signed up for TCS Rehab. Woohoo!
This is partly about Tiger Woods. It is quite lag, but I read with interest as he checked into a sex rehabilitation centre, came out supposedly all cured, made a public apology that had more viewers than the World Cup, and he saves the $300 million that he would have lost on divorce. Sounds like a fairy tale.
While everyone was busy debating whether sex rehab actually works, Tiger was probably thinking, "Hmm, so which is more expensive, rehab or divorce? Such a tough question.-brain grinds-". And his mistress beside him in bed said, "Oooh I know, a divorce is more expensive!" Not that her maths is any more impressive, but she knew that once Tiger got a divorce, he wouldn't have to pay her to shut up anymore. Brilliant economics.
Why don't we just say that Tiger Woods is an asshole? Why bother with crap like sex addiction? Imagine you rob a bank, get caught (that's you not me i don't get caught), and you tell the judge "Your honour, I'm suffering from money addiction, that's why I robbed the bank". If I were the judge, I'd say "Yes, I totally understand, that's why I'm sending you to hell, then your relatives can burn all the hellnotes they want". Addiction solved. And I think it's still the death penalty in Singapore for armed robbery.
Look at John Terry. JT doesn't apologize for his actions. He doesn't say, "I'm addicted to sex." He's all "Sex? Hell yeah." For that, the public calls him an asshole. And his England captaincy was lost. Now he can't sell the captain's VIP seat anymore. But all is not lost. I'm always on the lookout for business opportunities, and this is a great one. Introducing, the Talk Cock Summit Rehab Centre for assholes....
This is partly about Tiger Woods. It is quite lag, but I read with interest as he checked into a sex rehabilitation centre, came out supposedly all cured, made a public apology that had more viewers than the World Cup, and he saves the $300 million that he would have lost on divorce. Sounds like a fairy tale.
While everyone was busy debating whether sex rehab actually works, Tiger was probably thinking, "Hmm, so which is more expensive, rehab or divorce? Such a tough question.-brain grinds-". And his mistress beside him in bed said, "Oooh I know, a divorce is more expensive!" Not that her maths is any more impressive, but she knew that once Tiger got a divorce, he wouldn't have to pay her to shut up anymore. Brilliant economics.
Why don't we just say that Tiger Woods is an asshole? Why bother with crap like sex addiction? Imagine you rob a bank, get caught (that's you not me i don't get caught), and you tell the judge "Your honour, I'm suffering from money addiction, that's why I robbed the bank". If I were the judge, I'd say "Yes, I totally understand, that's why I'm sending you to hell, then your relatives can burn all the hellnotes they want". Addiction solved. And I think it's still the death penalty in Singapore for armed robbery.
Look at John Terry. JT doesn't apologize for his actions. He doesn't say, "I'm addicted to sex." He's all "Sex? Hell yeah." For that, the public calls him an asshole. And his England captaincy was lost. Now he can't sell the captain's VIP seat anymore. But all is not lost. I'm always on the lookout for business opportunities, and this is a great one. Introducing, the Talk Cock Summit Rehab Centre for assholes....
...guaranteed to reform assholes. Maybe you'll be a dickhead, but definitely not an asshole. We'll even give a certificate that says, loudly and proudly, "No longer an asshole!" I suppose that's even more relevant in Singapore's certificate-obsessed society. If JT attends, he'll get back the captaincy in no time. Prices start from $1000 a day.
Monday, March 01, 2010
How to Make Firefox Crash
Feeling too happy today? In need of a dose of frustration? Using Firefox? Well, you're in luck! Find the link in the sidebar to crash your Firefox. Have a nice day!
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